THE DEATH OF AUTOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST? GUESS AGAIN...
It's yet another opportunity for me to predict the future. Yes folks, I predicted the tech bubble, I predicted the housing bubble, I predicted the wholesale destruction of the American economy at the hands of Wall Street. I predicted the Iraq war would turn into a disaster and I have been correct each time.
The current struggles in the middle east will not give rise to more democratic governments. These are areas of the world where democracy can only be implemented with force: much as Napoleon brought much-needed reforms to France, only a powerful leader bent upon creating freedom and tolerance will change the middle east.
You will notice, first of all, that Egypt was one of the most democratic nations in the middle east. Thus the vulnerability of it's ruling autocratic regime was created by it's reticence to use the tactics that the Syrians or Iranians would not hesitate to use.
I hailed the rise of Ayatollah Komeini when I was a young man. I watched him get off the plan and felt it was a great thing that this leader was returning to free his country. I could not have been more wrong.
What we are facing in the mideast is "Arab" democracy. One man, one vote, one time. And then we will watch as the insidious cultural influence of Islam takes hold and crushes the life out of idealism.
I don't mean to be cynical: I hope I am wrong. But against the backdrop of all that has happened in that part of the world, and who they are, we would be quite foolish to assume that these are positive things.